Friday, March 16, 2012

Gallup poll vindicates Newt's argument for continuing campaign

The results of a new Gallup poll cast serious doubt on the argument made by Santorum supporters and many "conservative" pundits that Newt Gingrich should drop out of the race to consolidate conservative support behind Rick Santorum. Instead, the survey findings seem to vindicate the former Speaker's reasoning for remaining in the GOP presidential contest:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republican voters who prefer Newt Gingrich for the party's 2012 presidential nomination are as likely to name Mitt Romney as their second choice as they are to name Rick Santorum, suggesting the race would not tilt in Santorum's favor if Gingrich dropped out.

Gingrich Supporters' Second Choice for the Republican Nomination

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted March 8-15 with more than 1,900 Republican registered voters, including a sample of 290 Gingrich supporters.

Some conservative Republicans have called for Gingrich to drop out of the race on the assumption that conservative primary voters would then unite behind Santorum as the conservative alternative to the more moderate Romney. But Gallup data indicate that Gingrich voters would not be likely to coalesce behind Santorum, suggesting that factors other than candidate ideology may be attracting voters to Gingrich, Santorum, and Romney.

Gallup can simulate Republican preferences without Gingrich in the race by removing Gingrich votes and reassigning them to his voters' second-choice candidate. The results of this procedure suggest that national GOP preferences would change little if Gingrich dropped out. The reconfigured preferences show Romney getting 40% of the vote and Santorum getting 33%. That seven-percentage-point Romney lead is essentially the same as the six-point (34% to 28%) Romney lead in March 8-15 interviewing with Gingrich support included.

Republican Nomination Preferences, With and Without Gingrich

[Read More]
Related: Newt is Right: Santorum is Better Off With Gingrich in the Race

- JP

1 comment:

  1. How come no one asks Ron Paul to drop out?

    I believe that Paul is working with Romney to dilute the Gingrich votes because Romney believes he can beat Santorum, but not Gingrich. I wonder if Ron Paul will end up with a cabinet post under Romney. Ron Paul has gone from a candidate with convictions to a flunky for Romney. Given how Ron Paul has done, how come no one asks him to drop out?

    Take DEM votes being reported that Santorum may be getting, and the Gingrich votes I believe Ron Paul is diluting, and you end up with a very probable Newt win! No DEM would ever vote for Gingrich or Paul, but they would vote for Romney or Santorum. No reason for Newt to drop out, but every reason for Ron to drop out.

    Six Romney Family Members Hit Campaign Trail… For Ron Paul http://visiontoamerica.org/8587/six-romney-family-members-hit-campaign-trail-for-ron-paul/

    “Rick Santorum? Really? The Republicans have offered up this big, slow, juicy softball. Let's have fun whacking the heck out of it.” Is the Santorum surge a reality?
    http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/02/16/leftists_launch_operation_chaos_effort_to_boost_santorum

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